Beylagan District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early August
Record year: 2001178
Trend: +15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +104%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	178	22
2002	136	37
2003	67	17
2004	108	32
2005	61	15
2006	71	22
2007	50	6
2008	90	28
2009	130	44
2010	55	9
2011	88	24
2012	57	53
2013	106	106
2014	71	71
2015	151	151
2016	106	106
2017	89	89
2018	94	177
2019	164	288
2020	160	335
2021	119	240
2022	96	182
2023	146	312
2024	72	230
2025	155	445
2026	82	255

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (17 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun24°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri20°

Sat18°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~11 expected · usual 12

likely 1.1–42 · usual 0.0–37

Season

Starts ~25 January
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late January – early September

Onset: late January
Peak: early July
End: early September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – early August
33% of annual activity
early February – early March
25% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +104%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 8.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

9

2001
178
season ended 5 weeks late
2007
50
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
57
season ended 3 weeks early
2014
71
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
151
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
89
season ended 4 weeks late
2020
160
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
146
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
155
peak 2.9× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson