Gadabay District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid December
Record year: 202572
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	7	0
2003	5	0
2004	6	0
2005	17	5
2006	5	0
2007	6	0
2008	34	10
2009	5	0
2010	57	14
2011	5	0
2012	15	15
2013	5	5
2014	4	4
2015	16	16
2016	4	4
2017	58	58
2018	2	3
2019	11	19
2020	5	14
2021	13	27
2022	7	12
2023	23	47
2024	0	3
2025	72	228
2026	1	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (26 mm)↓

Sun15°

Mon6°

Tue6°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat11°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 5

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 2.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.1 expected · usual 6.7

likely 0.0–6.4 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early September – late March

Onset: early September
Peak: early November
End: late March

Critical windows

mid October – mid December
66% of annual activity
early September – mid September
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.3× its earlier level (p 0.008). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

12

2005
17
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
2008
34
4.8× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
2010
57
8.2× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
2012
15
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2013
5
season ended 18 weeks early
2015
16
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2017
58
8.3× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
2
season began 20 weeks late
2019
11
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2021
13
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2023
23
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2025
72
10× the normal annual activity
peak 32× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Gadabay District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid December
Record year: 202572
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +46%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	7	0
2003	5	0
2004	6	0
2005	17	5
2006	5	0
2007	6	0
2008	34	10
2009	5	0
2010	57	14
2011	5	0
2012	15	15
2013	5	5
2014	4	4
2015	16	16
2016	4	4
2017	58	58
2018	2	3
2019	11	19
2020	5	14
2021	13	27
2022	7	12
2023	23	47
2024	0	3
2025	72	228
2026	1	5

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (26 mm)↓

Sun15°

Mon6°

Tue6°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri12°

Sat11°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 5

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 2.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.1 expected · usual 6.7

likely 0.0–6.4 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early September – late March

Onset: early September
Peak: early November
End: late March

Critical windows

mid October – mid December
66% of annual activity
early September – mid September
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +46%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.3× its earlier level (p 0.008). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

12

2005
17
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
2008
34
4.8× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
2010
57
8.2× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
2012
15
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2013
5
season ended 18 weeks early
2015
16
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2017
58
8.3× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
2
season began 20 weeks late
2019
11
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2021
13
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2023
23
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2025
72
10× the normal annual activity
peak 32× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson