Agdash District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 202095
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +83%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	94	18
2002	72	15
2003	52	15
2004	79	20
2005	43	11
2006	53	13
2007	60	17
2008	59	18
2009	50	15
2010	43	10
2011	82	27
2012	75	64
2013	53	53
2014	74	74
2015	37	37
2016	60	60
2017	78	78
2018	39	82
2019	73	166
2020	95	201
2021	43	87
2022	81	162
2023	63	105
2024	60	176
2025	94	286
2026	49	170

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (6.0 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date49

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 57

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.6 expected · usual 7.2

likely 1.0–33 · usual 0.0–24

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late February
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – late March
56% of annual activity
mid July – mid July
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +83%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.88).

Unusual years

12

2001
94
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
79
season ended 4 weeks early
2011
82
season began 6 weeks late
2012
75
season began 25 weeks late
2014
74
season began 25 weeks late
2017
78
season began 24 weeks late
2020
95
season began 26 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
81
season began 25 weeks late
2023
63
season began 20 weeks late
2024
60
season began 6 weeks late
2025
94
season began 8 weeks early
2026
49
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Agdash District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 202095
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +83%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	94	18
2002	72	15
2003	52	15
2004	79	20
2005	43	11
2006	53	13
2007	60	17
2008	59	18
2009	50	15
2010	43	10
2011	82	27
2012	75	64
2013	53	53
2014	74	74
2015	37	37
2016	60	60
2017	78	78
2018	39	82
2019	73	166
2020	95	201
2021	43	87
2022	81	162
2023	63	105
2024	60	176
2025	94	286
2026	49	170

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (6.0 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date49

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 57

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.6 expected · usual 7.2

likely 1.0–33 · usual 0.0–24

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late February
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – late March
56% of annual activity
mid July – mid July
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +83%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.88).

Unusual years

12

2001
94
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
79
season ended 4 weeks early
2011
82
season began 6 weeks late
2012
75
season began 25 weeks late
2014
74
season began 25 weeks late
2017
78
season began 24 weeks late
2020
95
season began 26 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
81
season began 25 weeks late
2023
63
season began 20 weeks late
2024
60
season began 6 weeks late
2025
94
season began 8 weeks early
2026
49
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson