Ujar District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 2025119
Trend: +30%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	59	5
2002	55	8
2003	56	14
2004	80	18
2005	22	3
2006	22	2
2007	27	5
2008	25	5
2009	47	13
2010	37	4
2011	54	16
2012	35	34
2013	46	46
2014	48	48
2015	22	22
2016	63	63
2017	69	69
2018	31	54
2019	91	185
2020	96	214
2021	25	47
2022	95	193
2023	39	84
2024	62	201
2025	119	354
2026	76	203

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (6.3 m/s)↑
Humid air (69%)↓

Sun24°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat17°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~5.7 expected · usual 6.1

likely 1.0–27 · usual 0.0–21

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early March
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – late March
54% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +30%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

12

2003
56
season ended 5 weeks early
2011
54
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
35
season ended 4 weeks late
2014
48
season began 22 weeks late
2015
22
season ended 10 weeks early
2017
69
season began 22 weeks late
2020
96
season began 24 weeks late
2021
25
season ended 4 weeks late
2022
95
season began 23 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2023
39
season began 17 weeks late
2024
62
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
119
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
season began 21 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson