Shahbuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early October
Record year: 201434
Trend: −98%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	0
2002	17	0
2003	15	1
2004	20	2
2005	15	1
2006	12	0
2007	12	0
2008	11	0
2009	11	0
2010	32	5
2011	12	0
2012	6	5
2013	1	1
2014	34	34
2015	0	0
2016	2	2
2017	2	2
2018	0	2
2019	0	0
2020	1	8
2021	0	0
2022	0	1
2023	0	0
2024	0	1
2025	1	1
2026	0	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun12°

Mon8°

Tue8°

Wed10°

Thu10°

Fri10°

Sat11°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.9

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~30 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late August
End: early March

Critical windows

mid July – early October
59% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −98%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.42). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2010
32
peak 13× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2012
6
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
1
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2014
34
peak 20× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early
2016
2
season began 6 weeks late
2017
2
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks early
2020
1
season ended 31 weeks early
2025
1
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shahbuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early October
Record year: 201434
Trend: −98%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	0
2002	17	0
2003	15	1
2004	20	2
2005	15	1
2006	12	0
2007	12	0
2008	11	0
2009	11	0
2010	32	5
2011	12	0
2012	6	5
2013	1	1
2014	34	34
2015	0	0
2016	2	2
2017	2	2
2018	0	2
2019	0	0
2020	1	8
2021	0	0
2022	0	1
2023	0	0
2024	0	1
2025	1	1
2026	0	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun12°

Mon8°

Tue8°

Wed10°

Thu10°

Fri10°

Sat11°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.9

likely 0.0–0.6 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~30 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late August
End: early March

Critical windows

mid July – early October
59% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −98%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.42). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2010
32
peak 13× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2012
6
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
1
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early
2014
34
peak 20× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early
2016
2
season began 6 weeks late
2017
2
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks early
2020
1
season ended 31 weeks early
2025
1
season began 13 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson