Quba District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – early September
Record year: 2001177
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	177	31
2002	37	11
2003	38	16
2004	81	28
2005	15	2
2006	46	15
2007	21	6
2008	23	6
2009	14	0
2010	33	14
2011	17	4
2012	32	32
2013	20	20
2014	37	37
2015	41	41
2016	38	38
2017	46	46
2018	39	62
2019	31	59
2020	29	62
2021	12	29
2022	57	99
2023	2	5
2024	12	35
2025	18	59
2026	8	16

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun9°

Mon−1°

Tue3°

Wed9°

Thu10°

Fri8°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date8

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 32

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 1.0

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early September

Onset: early March
Peak: early August
End: early September

Critical windows

early July – early September
62% of annual activity
late March – early April
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

6

2001
177
5.5× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2004
81
season began 17 weeks late
2008
23
season began 14 weeks early
2012
32
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
57
season began 18 weeks late
2026
8
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Quba District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – early September
Record year: 2001177
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	177	31
2002	37	11
2003	38	16
2004	81	28
2005	15	2
2006	46	15
2007	21	6
2008	23	6
2009	14	0
2010	33	14
2011	17	4
2012	32	32
2013	20	20
2014	37	37
2015	41	41
2016	38	38
2017	46	46
2018	39	62
2019	31	59
2020	29	62
2021	12	29
2022	57	99
2023	2	5
2024	12	35
2025	18	59
2026	8	16

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun9°

Mon−1°

Tue3°

Wed9°

Thu10°

Fri8°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date8

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 32

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 1.0

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–0.9

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early September

Onset: early March
Peak: early August
End: early September

Critical windows

early July – early September
62% of annual activity
late March – early April
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

6

2001
177
5.5× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2004
81
season began 17 weeks late
2008
23
season began 14 weeks early
2012
32
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
57
season began 18 weeks late
2026
8
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson