Absheron District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early August
Record year: 200775
Trend: −19%/ 10significant · on raw data: +92%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	26	2
2002	23	4
2003	38	11
2004	26	6
2005	15	0
2006	20	2
2007	75	21
2008	14	0
2009	17	2
2010	15	0
2011	14	0
2012	20	20
2013	18	18
2014	12	12
2015	39	39
2016	30	30
2017	30	30
2018	15	39
2019	20	32
2020	13	38
2021	15	24
2022	18	40
2023	13	21
2024	7	29
2025	19	48
2026	10	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon11°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri16°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date10

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 17

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.0 expected · usual 2.1

likely 0.6–12 · usual 0.0–3.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – mid October

Onset: late April
Peak: early July
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – early August
34% of annual activity
late May – mid June
18% of annual activity
late August – late August
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +92%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.28).

Unusual years

9

2003
38
2.1× the normal annual activity
2004
26
season began 10 weeks early
2007
75
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 9.6× stronger than normal
2015
39
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
2017
30
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
20
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
13
season began 15 weeks late
2024
7
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
10
season began 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Absheron District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early August
Record year: 200775
Trend: −19%/ 10significant · on raw data: +92%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	26	2
2002	23	4
2003	38	11
2004	26	6
2005	15	0
2006	20	2
2007	75	21
2008	14	0
2009	17	2
2010	15	0
2011	14	0
2012	20	20
2013	18	18
2014	12	12
2015	39	39
2016	30	30
2017	30	30
2018	15	39
2019	20	32
2020	13	38
2021	15	24
2022	18	40
2023	13	21
2024	7	29
2025	19	48
2026	10	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon11°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri16°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date10

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 17

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.0 expected · usual 2.1

likely 0.6–12 · usual 0.0–3.3

Season

Starts ~26 April
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late April – mid October

Onset: late April
Peak: early July
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – early August
34% of annual activity
late May – mid June
18% of annual activity
late August – late August
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +92%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2015 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.28).

Unusual years

9

2003
38
2.1× the normal annual activity
2004
26
season began 10 weeks early
2007
75
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 9.6× stronger than normal
2015
39
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
2017
30
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
20
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
13
season began 15 weeks late
2024
7
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
10
season began 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson