Astara District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – early February
Record year: 202181
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +40%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	6	0
2003	10	3
2004	6	1
2005	5	0
2006	5	0
2007	47	17
2008	5	0
2009	5	0
2010	5	0
2011	5	0
2012	11	11
2013	1	1
2014	8	8
2015	0	0
2016	6	6
2017	8	8
2018	7	8
2019	2	9
2020	0	3
2021	81	131
2022	4	9
2023	2	5
2024	12	28
2025	3	10
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon10°

Tue7°

Wed12°

Thu19°

Fri20°

Sat24°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 5

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–13 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~18 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid January
End: late March

Critical windows

late December – early February
53% of annual activity
mid March – early April
11% of annual activity
late July – early August
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +40%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.9× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

11

2002
6
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
10
season ended 7 weeks early
2007
47
8.8× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
season began 27 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 41 weeks early
2018
7
season began 35 weeks late
2019
2
season began 22 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2021
81
15× the normal annual activity
peak 38× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
4
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
2
season began 36 weeks late
2024
12
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
3
season ended 19 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Astara District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – early February
Record year: 202181
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +40%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	6	0
2003	10	3
2004	6	1
2005	5	0
2006	5	0
2007	47	17
2008	5	0
2009	5	0
2010	5	0
2011	5	0
2012	11	11
2013	1	1
2014	8	8
2015	0	0
2016	6	6
2017	8	8
2018	7	8
2019	2	9
2020	0	3
2021	81	131
2022	4	9
2023	2	5
2024	12	28
2025	3	10
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon10°

Tue7°

Wed12°

Thu19°

Fri20°

Sat24°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 5

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–13 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~18 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid January
End: late March

Critical windows

late December – early February
53% of annual activity
mid March – early April
11% of annual activity
late July – early August
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +40%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.9× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

11

2002
6
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
10
season ended 7 weeks early
2007
47
8.8× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
season began 27 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 41 weeks early
2018
7
season began 35 weeks late
2019
2
season began 22 weeks late
season ended 13 weeks early
2021
81
15× the normal annual activity
peak 38× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2022
4
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
2
season began 36 weeks late
2024
12
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
3
season ended 19 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson