Balakan District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – late March
Record year: 201614
Trend: −26%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	2
2002	3	0
2003	2	0
2004	9	2
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	8	2
2008	10	3
2009	2	0
2010	3	0
2011	9	2
2012	11	11
2013	1	1
2014	7	7
2015	5	5
2016	14	14
2017	8	8
2018	2	6
2019	1	4
2020	3	9
2021	1	5
2022	6	11
2023	3	5
2024	0	0
2025	3	7
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri16°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – late September

Onset: mid February
Peak: late July
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – late March
31% of annual activity
mid July – early August
31% of annual activity
late September – early October
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.6× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.19).

Unusual years

8

2012
11
season ended 22 weeks early
2013
1
season ended 22 weeks early
2014
7
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early
2015
5
season began 17 weeks late
2018
2
season began 29 weeks late
2019
1
season ended 25 weeks early
2021
1
season began 14 weeks late
2025
3
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Balakan District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – late March
Record year: 201614
Trend: −26%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	2
2002	3	0
2003	2	0
2004	9	2
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	8	2
2008	10	3
2009	2	0
2010	3	0
2011	9	2
2012	11	11
2013	1	1
2014	7	7
2015	5	5
2016	14	14
2017	8	8
2018	2	6
2019	1	4
2020	3	9
2021	1	5
2022	6	11
2023	3	5
2024	0	0
2025	3	7
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri16°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.8 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – late September

Onset: mid February
Peak: late July
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – late March
31% of annual activity
mid July – early August
31% of annual activity
late September – early October
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.6× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.19).

Unusual years

8

2012
11
season ended 22 weeks early
2013
1
season ended 22 weeks early
2014
7
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early
2015
5
season began 17 weeks late
2018
2
season began 29 weeks late
2019
1
season ended 25 weeks early
2021
1
season began 14 weeks late
2025
3
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson