Khojavend District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early June – late August
Record year: 2015680
Trend: −30%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +67%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	469	78
2002	366	102
2003	540	163
2004	567	162
2005	260	73
2006	541	155
2007	251	66
2008	257	76
2009	189	47
2010	274	77
2011	351	98
2012	292	287
2013	324	324
2014	125	125
2015	680	680
2016	428	428
2017	337	337
2018	283	540
2019	605	1136
2020	239	487
2021	395	825
2022	64	135
2023	41	90
2024	72	245
2025	340	937
2026	242	673

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (12 mm)↓

Sun20°

Mon9°

Tue7°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date242

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 324

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.8 expected · usual 4.4

likely 1.2–16 · usual 0.0–14

Season

Starts ~14 June
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid June – late August

Onset: mid June
Peak: late July
End: late August

Critical windows

early June – late August
87% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +67%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

11

2005
260
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
189
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
292
season began 11 weeks early
2014
125
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks early
2018
283
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
605
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
239
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
64
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks late
2024
72
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
340
season ended 4 weeks early
2026
242
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Khojavend District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early June – late August
Record year: 2015680
Trend: −30%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +67%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	469	78
2002	366	102
2003	540	163
2004	567	162
2005	260	73
2006	541	155
2007	251	66
2008	257	76
2009	189	47
2010	274	77
2011	351	98
2012	292	287
2013	324	324
2014	125	125
2015	680	680
2016	428	428
2017	337	337
2018	283	540
2019	605	1136
2020	239	487
2021	395	825
2022	64	135
2023	41	90
2024	72	245
2025	340	937
2026	242	673

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (12 mm)↓

Sun20°

Mon9°

Tue7°

Wed13°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date242

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 324

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.8 expected · usual 4.4

likely 1.2–16 · usual 0.0–14

Season

Starts ~14 June
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid June – late August

Onset: mid June
Peak: late July
End: late August

Critical windows

early June – late August
87% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +67%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

11

2005
260
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
189
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
292
season began 11 weeks early
2014
125
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 15 weeks early
2018
283
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
605
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
239
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
64
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks late
2024
72
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
340
season ended 4 weeks early
2026
242
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson