Neftchala District

Next 7 daysLow10%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2013256
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +67%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	123	12
2002	139	33
2003	81	17
2004	152	39
2005	63	7
2006	85	22
2007	115	27
2008	73	13
2009	150	44
2010	109	27
2011	58	7
2012	65	58
2013	256	256
2014	58	58
2015	150	150
2016	178	178
2017	115	115
2018	36	82
2019	70	135
2020	86	195
2021	55	98
2022	81	152
2023	41	86
2024	40	124
2025	33	126
2026	65	197

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.3 m/s)↑
Humid air (71%)↓

Sun24°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri16°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date65

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 79

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 1.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~7.0 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–35 · usual 0.0–24

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early August
End: mid February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – mid September
49% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +67%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2001
123
season ended 6 weeks early
2004
152
season ended 14 weeks early
2010
109
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
256
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2015
150
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
178
season ended 21 weeks early
2018
36
season ended 6 weeks late
2020
86
season began 19 weeks late
2021
55
season began 6 weeks late
2024
40
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Neftchala District

Next 7 daysLow10%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2013256
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +67%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	123	12
2002	139	33
2003	81	17
2004	152	39
2005	63	7
2006	85	22
2007	115	27
2008	73	13
2009	150	44
2010	109	27
2011	58	7
2012	65	58
2013	256	256
2014	58	58
2015	150	150
2016	178	178
2017	115	115
2018	36	82
2019	70	135
2020	86	195
2021	55	98
2022	81	152
2023	41	86
2024	40	124
2025	33	126
2026	65	197

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.3 m/s)↑
Humid air (71%)↓

Sun24°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri16°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date65

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 79

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 1.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~7.0 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–35 · usual 0.0–24

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early August
End: mid February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – mid September
49% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +67%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2001
123
season ended 6 weeks early
2004
152
season ended 14 weeks early
2010
109
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
256
3.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2015
150
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
178
season ended 21 weeks early
2018
36
season ended 6 weeks late
2020
86
season began 19 weeks late
2021
55
season began 6 weeks late
2024
40
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson