Shusha City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – mid September
Record year: 200123
Trend: −116%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	0
2002	17	0
2003	11	0
2004	14	0
2005	11	0
2006	12	0
2007	12	0
2008	11	0
2009	11	0
2010	12	0
2011	12	0
2012	1	0
2013	0	0
2014	0	0
2015	0	0
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	0	0
2019	0	0
2020	4	15
2021	4	7
2022	0	0
2023	0	0
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon9°

Tue5°

Wed12°

Thu16°

Fri15°

Sat14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.9

likely 0.0–0.4 · usual 0.0–2.1

Season

Starts ~1 February
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early February – mid October

Onset: early February
Peak: early August
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – mid September
39% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −116%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 1.00). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2006
12
season began 3 weeks late
2010
12
season ended 4 weeks late
2020
4
season began 38 weeks late
season ended 2 weeks late
2021
4
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson