Goygol District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 200416
Trend: −32%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +59%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	1
2002	10	2
2003	5	0
2004	16	4
2005	12	4
2006	8	1
2007	4	0
2008	11	3
2009	4	0
2010	12	3
2011	5	0
2012	0	0
2013	7	7
2014	2	2
2015	13	13
2016	13	13
2017	8	8
2018	13	30
2019	1	4
2020	2	8
2021	7	9
2022	1	2
2023	2	8
2024	1	3
2025	9	16
2026	3	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon8°

Tue5°

Wed11°

Thu14°

Fri16°

Sat10°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 7

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid September

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: +59%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.3× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

3

2013
7
season began 21 weeks early
2014
2
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
2
season ended 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Goygol District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 200416
Trend: −32%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +59%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	1
2002	10	2
2003	5	0
2004	16	4
2005	12	4
2006	8	1
2007	4	0
2008	11	3
2009	4	0
2010	12	3
2011	5	0
2012	0	0
2013	7	7
2014	2	2
2015	13	13
2016	13	13
2017	8	8
2018	13	30
2019	1	4
2020	2	8
2021	7	9
2022	1	2
2023	2	8
2024	1	3
2025	9	16
2026	3	14

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon8°

Tue5°

Wed11°

Thu14°

Fri16°

Sat10°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#19 of 26 yearsNormal: 7

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–0.9 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – mid September

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: +59%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.3× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

3

2013
7
season began 21 weeks early
2014
2
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
2
season ended 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson