Tovuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 201182
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +68%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	36	5
2002	30	2
2003	19	1
2004	32	10
2005	37	11
2006	64	23
2007	27	6
2008	21	7
2009	41	7
2010	34	13
2011	82	31
2012	18	17
2013	20	20
2014	39	39
2015	73	73
2016	48	48
2017	29	29
2018	11	26
2019	51	84
2020	19	42
2021	23	53
2022	27	71
2023	12	25
2024	12	36
2025	56	211
2026	12	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue9°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri18°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date12

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 29

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 2.3

likely 0.0–4.9 · usual 0.0–4.3

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
49% of annual activity
late February – early March
8% of annual activity
early February – early February
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +68%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 5.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

13

2006
64
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2007
27
season ended 5 weeks late
2011
82
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
2012
18
season began 28 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2013
20
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
73
season ended 4 weeks early
2017
29
season ended 4 weeks late
2018
11
season ended 17 weeks early
2020
19
season ended 6 weeks late
2021
23
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2022
27
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
12
season began 3 weeks late
2026
12
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Tovuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 201182
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +68%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	36	5
2002	30	2
2003	19	1
2004	32	10
2005	37	11
2006	64	23
2007	27	6
2008	21	7
2009	41	7
2010	34	13
2011	82	31
2012	18	17
2013	20	20
2014	39	39
2015	73	73
2016	48	48
2017	29	29
2018	11	26
2019	51	84
2020	19	42
2021	23	53
2022	27	71
2023	12	25
2024	12	36
2025	56	211
2026	12	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue9°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri18°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date12

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 29

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 2.3

likely 0.0–4.9 · usual 0.0–4.3

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
49% of annual activity
late February – early March
8% of annual activity
early February – early February
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +68%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 5.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

13

2006
64
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2007
27
season ended 5 weeks late
2011
82
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
2012
18
season began 28 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2013
20
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
73
season ended 4 weeks early
2017
29
season ended 4 weeks late
2018
11
season ended 17 weeks early
2020
19
season ended 6 weeks late
2021
23
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2022
27
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
12
season began 3 weeks late
2026
12
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson