Goychay District

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late August
Record year: 2001100
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	100	28
2002	47	11
2003	27	6
2004	65	22
2005	24	2
2006	28	3
2007	34	8
2008	44	17
2009	25	5
2010	33	9
2011	59	19
2012	20	19
2013	49	49
2014	20	20
2015	44	44
2016	61	61
2017	49	49
2018	56	99
2019	84	189
2020	39	93
2021	18	35
2022	39	69
2023	30	62
2024	35	93
2025	32	117
2026	29	101

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (6.0 m/s)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date29

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 39

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~3.8 expected · usual 2.3

likely 0.0–11 · usual 0.0–6.4

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – late August
42% of annual activity
early February – early March
21% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

7

2001
100
season ended 8 weeks early
2014
20
season began 26 weeks late
2015
44
season ended 26 weeks early
2018
56
season ended 25 weeks early
2023
30
season began 31 weeks late
2024
35
season began 6 weeks late
2025
32
season began 18 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Goychay District

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late August
Record year: 2001100
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	100	28
2002	47	11
2003	27	6
2004	65	22
2005	24	2
2006	28	3
2007	34	8
2008	44	17
2009	25	5
2010	33	9
2011	59	19
2012	20	19
2013	49	49
2014	20	20
2015	44	44
2016	61	61
2017	49	49
2018	56	99
2019	84	189
2020	39	93
2021	18	35
2022	39	69
2023	30	62
2024	35	93
2025	32	117
2026	29	101

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (6.0 m/s)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sun24°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date29

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 39

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~3.8 expected · usual 2.3

likely 0.0–11 · usual 0.0–6.4

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – late August
42% of annual activity
early February – early March
21% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

7

2001
100
season ended 8 weeks early
2014
20
season began 26 weeks late
2015
44
season ended 26 weeks early
2018
56
season ended 25 weeks early
2023
30
season began 31 weeks late
2024
35
season began 6 weeks late
2025
32
season began 18 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson