Zardab District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early March
Record year: 202096
Trend: +16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	55	3
2002	64	8
2003	61	14
2004	64	14
2005	42	9
2006	50	10
2007	32	3
2008	36	6
2009	32	5
2010	27	1
2011	88	25
2012	37	34
2013	64	64
2014	54	54
2015	23	23
2016	85	85
2017	75	75
2018	46	95
2019	76	138
2020	96	170
2021	32	69
2022	89	188
2023	46	122
2024	79	203
2025	85	288
2026	112	325

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (67%)↓

Sun24°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date112

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 52

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.7 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–38 · usual 0.0–30

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early March
34% of annual activity
early August – late August
15% of annual activity
mid July – mid July
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +16%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

10

2003
61
season ended 19 weeks early
2006
50
season ended 11 weeks early
2012
37
season began 6 weeks early
2015
23
season ended 15 weeks early
2018
46
season ended 18 weeks early
2020
96
season began 27 weeks late
2022
89
season began 26 weeks late
2023
46
season began 31 weeks late
2024
79
season began 13 weeks late
2025
85
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Zardab District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early March
Record year: 202096
Trend: +16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	55	3
2002	64	8
2003	61	14
2004	64	14
2005	42	9
2006	50	10
2007	32	3
2008	36	6
2009	32	5
2010	27	1
2011	88	25
2012	37	34
2013	64	64
2014	54	54
2015	23	23
2016	85	85
2017	75	75
2018	46	95
2019	76	138
2020	96	170
2021	32	69
2022	89	188
2023	46	122
2024	79	203
2025	85	288
2026	112	325

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (67%)↓

Sun24°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date112

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 52

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.7 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–38 · usual 0.0–30

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early March
34% of annual activity
early August – late August
15% of annual activity
mid July – mid July
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +16%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

10

2003
61
season ended 19 weeks early
2006
50
season ended 11 weeks early
2012
37
season began 6 weeks early
2015
23
season ended 15 weeks early
2018
46
season ended 18 weeks early
2020
96
season began 27 weeks late
2022
89
season began 26 weeks late
2023
46
season began 31 weeks late
2024
79
season began 13 weeks late
2025
85
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson