Qazakh District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2010118
Trend: −44%/ 10significant · on raw data: +62%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	102	32
2002	23	2
2003	45	10
2004	35	6
2005	46	9
2006	65	27
2007	37	12
2008	33	9
2009	16	3
2010	118	34
2011	49	12
2012	23	21
2013	40	40
2014	38	38
2015	71	71
2016	16	16
2017	61	61
2018	17	45
2019	24	51
2020	10	21
2021	29	56
2022	26	44
2023	1	2
2024	4	23
2025	20	63
2026	25	64

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon13°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri18°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week4.4

This week is more active than 100% of past years at this time

Year to date25

#16 of 26 yearsNormal: 32

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.4 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.5–4.6 · usual 0.0–1.9

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid February

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: mid February

Critical windows

late June – mid September
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −44%/10Raw: +62%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.8× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
102
season ended 17 weeks early
2003
45
season ended 21 weeks early
2010
118
3.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 20 weeks early
2015
71
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
61
season ended 23 weeks early
2018
17
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
10
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 24 weeks late
2026
25
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Qazakh District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2010118
Trend: −44%/ 10significant · on raw data: +62%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	102	32
2002	23	2
2003	45	10
2004	35	6
2005	46	9
2006	65	27
2007	37	12
2008	33	9
2009	16	3
2010	118	34
2011	49	12
2012	23	21
2013	40	40
2014	38	38
2015	71	71
2016	16	16
2017	61	61
2018	17	45
2019	24	51
2020	10	21
2021	29	56
2022	26	44
2023	1	2
2024	4	23
2025	20	63
2026	25	64

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon13°

Tue10°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri18°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week4.4

This week is more active than 100% of past years at this time

Year to date25

#16 of 26 yearsNormal: 32

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.4 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.5–4.6 · usual 0.0–1.9

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid February

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: mid February

Critical windows

late June – mid September
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −44%/10Raw: +62%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.8× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
102
season ended 17 weeks early
2003
45
season ended 21 weeks early
2010
118
3.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 20 weeks early
2015
71
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
61
season ended 23 weeks early
2018
17
season ended 15 weeks early
2020
10
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 24 weeks late
2026
25
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson