Qakh District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 20 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – early April
Record year: 2012113
Trend: −26%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	46	20
2002	38	11
2003	79	22
2004	88	28
2005	88	36
2006	47	12
2007	50	28
2008	19	4
2009	15	2
2010	16	4
2011	79	34
2012	113	112
2013	19	19
2014	20	20
2015	58	58
2016	45	45
2017	63	63
2018	24	66
2019	110	180
2020	27	55
2021	9	12
2022	18	34
2023	12	25
2024	24	62
2025	57	171
2026	9	28

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri18°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date9

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 44

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.0–3.5 · usual 0.0–3.4

Season

Ends ~29 March
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – late March

Onset: late July
Peak: mid March
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – early April
43% of annual activity
mid July – mid August
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 3.8× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.42).

Unusual years

11

2004
88
season began 4 weeks late
2012
113
season began 30 weeks late
2013
19
season began 13 weeks late
2015
58
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
24
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
110
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
27
season began 11 weeks late
2021
9
season began 6 weeks early
2023
12
season began 10 weeks late
2024
24
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
9
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Qakh District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 20 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – early April
Record year: 2012113
Trend: −26%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	46	20
2002	38	11
2003	79	22
2004	88	28
2005	88	36
2006	47	12
2007	50	28
2008	19	4
2009	15	2
2010	16	4
2011	79	34
2012	113	112
2013	19	19
2014	20	20
2015	58	58
2016	45	45
2017	63	63
2018	24	66
2019	110	180
2020	27	55
2021	9	12
2022	18	34
2023	12	25
2024	24	62
2025	57	171
2026	9	28

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri18°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date9

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 44

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.0 expected · usual 1.3

likely 0.0–3.5 · usual 0.0–3.4

Season

Ends ~29 March
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – late March

Onset: late July
Peak: mid March
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – early April
43% of annual activity
mid July – mid August
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2011 to 3.8× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.42).

Unusual years

11

2004
88
season began 4 weeks late
2012
113
season began 30 weeks late
2013
19
season began 13 weeks late
2015
58
season ended 20 weeks early
2018
24
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
110
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 26 weeks early
2020
27
season began 11 weeks late
2021
9
season began 6 weeks early
2023
12
season began 10 weeks late
2024
24
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
9
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson