Nakhchivan City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – late March
Record year: 201417
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +119%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	9	1
2003	6	0
2004	7	0
2005	11	2
2006	6	0
2007	6	0
2008	6	0
2009	6	0
2010	6	0
2011	6	0
2012	0	0
2013	14	14
2014	17	17
2015	15	15
2016	7	7
2017	9	9
2018	3	7
2019	8	16
2020	6	13
2021	16	23
2022	6	16
2023	7	19
2024	5	21
2025	11	31
2026	1	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon13°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu15°

Fri15°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – late March
23% of annual activity
early August – mid August
9% of annual activity
late August – early September
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +119%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 64.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

11

2005
11
1.7× the normal annual activity
2013
14
2.1× the normal annual activity
2014
17
2.6× the normal annual activity
2015
15
2.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks late
2016
7
season began 5 weeks late
2017
9
season began 5 weeks late
2018
3
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
16
2.5× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2022
6
season ended 10 weeks early
2025
11
1.7× the normal annual activity
2026
1
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Nakhchivan City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – late March
Record year: 201417
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +119%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8	0
2002	9	1
2003	6	0
2004	7	0
2005	11	2
2006	6	0
2007	6	0
2008	6	0
2009	6	0
2010	6	0
2011	6	0
2012	0	0
2013	14	14
2014	17	17
2015	15	15
2016	7	7
2017	9	9
2018	3	7
2019	8	16
2020	6	13
2021	16	23
2022	6	16
2023	7	19
2024	5	21
2025	11	31
2026	1	12

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon13°

Tue13°

Wed12°

Thu15°

Fri15°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – late March
23% of annual activity
early August – mid August
9% of annual activity
late August – early September
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +119%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 64.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

11

2005
11
1.7× the normal annual activity
2013
14
2.1× the normal annual activity
2014
17
2.6× the normal annual activity
2015
15
2.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks late
2016
7
season began 5 weeks late
2017
9
season began 5 weeks late
2018
3
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
16
2.5× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2022
6
season ended 10 weeks early
2025
11
1.7× the normal annual activity
2026
1
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson