Fuzuli District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late August
Record year: 20151,082
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	469	67
2002	684	183
2003	729	206
2004	433	119
2005	389	100
2006	365	103
2007	398	106
2008	311	87
2009	243	70
2010	594	164
2011	378	111
2012	569	566
2013	534	534
2014	166	166
2015	1082	1082
2016	552	552
2017	459	459
2018	364	711
2019	878	1584
2020	260	544
2021	287	605
2022	122	271
2023	70	137
2024	79	278
2025	337	832
2026	315	1042

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (26 mm)↓

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri18°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date315

#18 of 26 yearsNormal: 385

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.2 expected · usual 4.3

likely 0.0–17 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~7 June
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early June – mid August

Onset: early June
Peak: mid July
End: mid August

Critical windows

late May – late August
88% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2011
378
season began 6 weeks late
2014
166
season began 12 weeks early
2020
260
season began 18 weeks early
2021
287
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
122
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks early
2023
70
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks early
2024
79
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 17 weeks early
2026
315
season began 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Fuzuli District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late August
Record year: 20151,082
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: +48%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	469	67
2002	684	183
2003	729	206
2004	433	119
2005	389	100
2006	365	103
2007	398	106
2008	311	87
2009	243	70
2010	594	164
2011	378	111
2012	569	566
2013	534	534
2014	166	166
2015	1082	1082
2016	552	552
2017	459	459
2018	364	711
2019	878	1584
2020	260	544
2021	287	605
2022	122	271
2023	70	137
2024	79	278
2025	337	832
2026	315	1042

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (26 mm)↓

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri18°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date315

#18 of 26 yearsNormal: 385

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.2 expected · usual 4.3

likely 0.0–17 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~7 June
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early June – mid August

Onset: early June
Peak: mid July
End: mid August

Critical windows

late May – late August
88% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: +48%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2011
378
season began 6 weeks late
2014
166
season began 12 weeks early
2020
260
season began 18 weeks early
2021
287
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
122
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 14 weeks early
2023
70
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks early
2024
79
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 17 weeks early
2026
315
season began 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson