Dashkasan District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late August – mid September
Record year: 20177
Trend: −24%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	0
2002	1	0
2003	1	0
2004	4	1
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	1	0
2008	1	0
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	2	2
2014	2	2
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	7	7
2018	0	0
2019	0	0
2020	0	2
2021	0	0
2022	1	3
2023	1	2
2024	0	2
2025	3	11
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun12°

Mon4°

Tue2°

Wed9°

Thu10°

Fri9°

Sat7°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–0.5 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~22 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early November

Onset: late March
Peak: early September
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late August – mid September
33% of annual activity
early August – mid August
14% of annual activity
late October – early November
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 29.5× its earlier level (p 0.04). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

7

2004
4
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 9.9× stronger than normal
2013
2
peak 7.9× stronger than normal
season began 26 weeks late
2014
2
peak 7.9× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2016
1
season ended 12 weeks early
2017
7
6.3× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
2023
1
season ended 27 weeks early
2025
3
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson