Goranboy District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – early September
Record year: 2018152
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	58	7
2002	50	9
2003	89	15
2004	142	32
2005	45	7
2006	42	7
2007	24	0
2008	28	2
2009	44	8
2010	63	14
2011	43	6
2012	26	24
2013	68	68
2014	24	24
2015	65	65
2016	40	40
2017	13	13
2018	152	287
2019	61	127
2020	56	112
2021	59	131
2022	28	45
2023	16	27
2024	24	54
2025	47	129
2026	30	96

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri20°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.8 expected · usual 3.0

likely 0.0–7.3 · usual 0.0–9.9

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: mid February

Critical windows

mid June – early September
69% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 7.9× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.68).

Unusual years

12

2003
89
peak 4.3× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2004
142
3.1× the normal annual activity
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2008
28
season began 3 weeks late
2010
63
season ended 9 weeks early
2011
43
season began 3 weeks late
2015
65
season ended 23 weeks early
2017
13
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2018
152
3.4× the normal annual activity
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2021
59
season ended 17 weeks early
2024
24
season began 3 weeks late
2025
47
season began 3 weeks late
2026
30
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson