Sabirabad District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early March
Record year: 2022158
Trend: +15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +104%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	81	2
2002	117	28
2003	72	18
2004	68	14
2005	36	3
2006	72	16
2007	66	11
2008	77	19
2009	71	17
2010	65	13
2011	83	14
2012	74	72
2013	82	82
2014	68	68
2015	51	51
2016	89	89
2017	82	82
2018	85	142
2019	68	138
2020	133	254
2021	18	51
2022	158	307
2023	101	209
2024	111	319
2025	95	263
2026	84	275

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (73%)↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri18°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date84

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 74

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~9.4 expected · usual 12

likely 2.3–36 · usual 0.0–29

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early March

Onset: late June
Peak: late February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early March
41% of annual activity
late June – mid July
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +104%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

19

2002
118
1.5× the normal annual activity
2003
72
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
68
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
36
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2006
72
season began 3 weeks early
2010
65
season ended 9 weeks early
2011
83
season began 4 weeks late
2012
74
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
82
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
68
season began 26 weeks late
2015
51
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2017
82
season began 4 weeks late
2020
133
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.3× stronger than normal
season began 29 weeks late
2021
18
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2022
158
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
season began 31 weeks late
2023
101
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 22 weeks late
2024
111
season began 11 weeks late
2025
95
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
84
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Sabirabad District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – early March
Record year: 2022158
Trend: +15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +104%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	81	2
2002	117	28
2003	72	18
2004	68	14
2005	36	3
2006	72	16
2007	66	11
2008	77	19
2009	71	17
2010	65	13
2011	83	14
2012	74	72
2013	82	82
2014	68	68
2015	51	51
2016	89	89
2017	82	82
2018	85	142
2019	68	138
2020	133	254
2021	18	51
2022	158	307
2023	101	209
2024	111	319
2025	95	263
2026	84	275

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (73%)↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri18°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date84

#8 of 26 yearsNormal: 74

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~9.4 expected · usual 12

likely 2.3–36 · usual 0.0–29

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early March

Onset: late June
Peak: late February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – early March
41% of annual activity
late June – mid July
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +104%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

19

2002
118
1.5× the normal annual activity
2003
72
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
68
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
36
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2006
72
season began 3 weeks early
2010
65
season ended 9 weeks early
2011
83
season began 4 weeks late
2012
74
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
82
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
68
season began 26 weeks late
2015
51
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2017
82
season began 4 weeks late
2020
133
1.7× the normal annual activity
peak 4.3× stronger than normal
season began 29 weeks late
2021
18
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2022
158
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
season began 31 weeks late
2023
101
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 22 weeks late
2024
111
season began 11 weeks late
2025
95
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
84
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson