Hajigabul District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – mid March
Record year: 200472
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +72%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	53	8
2002	39	3
2003	16	5
2004	72	31
2005	30	9
2006	30	8
2007	30	16
2008	14	1
2009	20	6
2010	27	7
2011	33	11
2012	38	37
2013	69	69
2014	24	24
2015	27	27
2016	46	46
2017	21	21
2018	18	48
2019	56	125
2020	30	64
2021	9	24
2022	34	65
2023	14	42
2024	21	53
2025	20	59
2026	29	101

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date29

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~4.6 expected · usual 2.1

likely 0.9–14 · usual 0.0–5.4

Season

Starts ~1 February
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early February – mid September

Onset: early February
Peak: early March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – mid March
24% of annual activity
late July – late August
21% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +72%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

7

2004
72
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2009
20
season began 7 weeks early
2010
27
season began 6 weeks early
2015
27
season began 8 weeks late
2016
46
season began 6 weeks late
2021
9
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2022
34
season ended 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Hajigabul District

Next 7 daysLow2%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – mid March
Record year: 200472
Trend: −20%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +72%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	53	8
2002	39	3
2003	16	5
2004	72	31
2005	30	9
2006	30	8
2007	30	16
2008	14	1
2009	20	6
2010	27	7
2011	33	11
2012	38	37
2013	69	69
2014	24	24
2015	27	27
2016	46	46
2017	21	21
2018	18	48
2019	56	125
2020	30	64
2021	9	24
2022	34	65
2023	14	42
2024	21	53
2025	20	59
2026	29	101

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon12°

Tue10°

Wed12°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date29

#12 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~4.6 expected · usual 2.1

likely 0.9–14 · usual 0.0–5.4

Season

Starts ~1 February
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early February – mid September

Onset: early February
Peak: early March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – mid March
24% of annual activity
late July – late August
21% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +72%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

7

2004
72
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2009
20
season began 7 weeks early
2010
27
season began 6 weeks early
2015
27
season began 8 weeks late
2016
46
season began 6 weeks late
2021
9
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2022
34
season ended 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson