Shamkir District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – early September
Record year: 200158
Trend: −15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +92%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	58	9
2002	31	6
2003	21	5
2004	47	16
2005	27	10
2006	35	15
2007	26	5
2008	20	3
2009	19	1
2010	37	11
2011	26	11
2012	14	13
2013	21	21
2014	22	22
2015	47	47
2016	25	25
2017	32	32
2018	27	56
2019	22	59
2020	29	54
2021	19	44
2022	32	61
2023	16	37
2024	16	53
2025	37	133
2026	16	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun22°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri19°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date16

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 25

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–4.7 · usual 0.0–3.0

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – early September

Onset: late February
Peak: early August
End: early September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – early September
48% of annual activity
late February – early March
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +92%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.58).

Unusual years

6

2001
58
2.2× the normal annual activity
2002
31
season ended 8 weeks late
2012
14
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
22
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
47
season began 17 weeks late
2018
27
season began 10 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shamkir District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – early September
Record year: 200158
Trend: −15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +92%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	58	9
2002	31	6
2003	21	5
2004	47	16
2005	27	10
2006	35	15
2007	26	5
2008	20	3
2009	19	1
2010	37	11
2011	26	11
2012	14	13
2013	21	21
2014	22	22
2015	47	47
2016	25	25
2017	32	32
2018	27	56
2019	22	59
2020	29	54
2021	19	44
2022	32	61
2023	16	37
2024	16	53
2025	37	133
2026	16	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun22°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri19°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date16

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 25

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.1 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–4.7 · usual 0.0–3.0

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – early September

Onset: late February
Peak: early August
End: early September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – early September
48% of annual activity
late February – early March
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −15%/10Raw: +92%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.58).

Unusual years

6

2001
58
2.2× the normal annual activity
2002
31
season ended 8 weeks late
2012
14
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
22
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
47
season began 17 weeks late
2018
27
season began 10 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson