Oghuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late September
Record year: 2019233
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +35%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	223	37
2002	40	10
2003	10	0
2004	76	29
2005	44	14
2006	30	10
2007	43	16
2008	38	18
2009	19	5
2010	11	2
2011	20	6
2012	24	24
2013	8	8
2014	53	53
2015	74	74
2016	125	125
2017	109	109
2018	56	127
2019	233	424
2020	16	40
2021	70	161
2022	118	257
2023	7	13
2024	3	14
2025	8	19
2026	3	6

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun19°

Mon12°

Tue8°

Wed11°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 39

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early September

Onset: mid April
Peak: late August
End: early September

Critical windows

early July – late September
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +35%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 8.6× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.42).

Unusual years

10

2001
223
season began 20 weeks late
2004
76
season began 18 weeks late
2010
11
season ended 10 weeks late
2015
74
season began 19 weeks late
2016
125
season began 21 weeks late
2018
56
season began 21 weeks late
2019
233
season began 19 weeks late
2020
16
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
118
season began 18 weeks late
2023
7
season ended 11 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Oghuz District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late September
Record year: 2019233
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +35%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	223	37
2002	40	10
2003	10	0
2004	76	29
2005	44	14
2006	30	10
2007	43	16
2008	38	18
2009	19	5
2010	11	2
2011	20	6
2012	24	24
2013	8	8
2014	53	53
2015	74	74
2016	125	125
2017	109	109
2018	56	127
2019	233	424
2020	16	40
2021	70	161
2022	118	257
2023	7	13
2024	3	14
2025	8	19
2026	3	6

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun19°

Mon12°

Tue8°

Wed11°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date3

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 39

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~12 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – early September

Onset: mid April
Peak: late August
End: early September

Critical windows

early July – late September
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +35%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 8.6× its earlier level (p 0.005). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.42).

Unusual years

10

2001
223
season began 20 weeks late
2004
76
season began 18 weeks late
2010
11
season ended 10 weeks late
2015
74
season began 19 weeks late
2016
125
season began 21 weeks late
2018
56
season began 21 weeks late
2019
233
season began 19 weeks late
2020
16
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
118
season began 18 weeks late
2023
7
season ended 11 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson