Babek District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – early April
Record year: 200610
Trend: −28%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +45%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	8	2
2004	8	2
2005	5	1
2006	10	3
2007	3	0
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	5	1
2011	3	0
2012	7	7
2013	9	9
2014	7	7
2015	3	3
2016	4	4
2017	1	1
2018	1	2
2019	0	2
2020	1	1
2021	2	2
2022	1	2
2023	5	9
2024	5	15
2025	6	19
2026	1	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#21 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – mid October

Onset: mid February
Peak: mid March
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – early April
37% of annual activity
late September – mid October
17% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −28%/10Raw: +45%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.3× its earlier level (p 0.009). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2003
8
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
2006
10
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
2014
7
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2015
3
season ended 30 weeks early
2017
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 30 weeks early
2020
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2022
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2024
5
season began 14 weeks late
2026
1
season ended 32 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Babek District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – early April
Record year: 200610
Trend: −28%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +45%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	8	2
2004	8	2
2005	5	1
2006	10	3
2007	3	0
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	5	1
2011	3	0
2012	7	7
2013	9	9
2014	7	7
2015	3	3
2016	4	4
2017	1	1
2018	1	2
2019	0	2
2020	1	1
2021	2	2
2022	1	2
2023	5	9
2024	5	15
2025	6	19
2026	1	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#21 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.7 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – mid October

Onset: mid February
Peak: mid March
End: mid October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – early April
37% of annual activity
late September – mid October
17% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −28%/10Raw: +45%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.3× its earlier level (p 0.009). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2003
8
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
2006
10
peak 5.2× stronger than normal
2014
7
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2015
3
season ended 30 weeks early
2017
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 30 weeks early
2020
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2021
2
season ended 25 weeks early
2022
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2024
5
season began 14 weeks late
2026
1
season ended 32 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson