Shusha District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 10 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late August
Record year: 20218
Trend: −32%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	2	0
2003	2	0
2004	3	0
2005	2	0
2006	7	2
2007	2	1
2008	2	0
2009	1	0
2010	2	5
2011	2	1
2012	0	0
2013	2	2
2014	5	5
2015	3	3
2016	0	0
2017	2	2
2018	1	1
2019	0	0
2020	7	20
2021	8	16
2022	2	5
2023	1	1
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun15°

Mon7°

Tue3°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri11°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#22 of 26 yearsNormal: 2

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – mid January

Onset: early August
Peak: early August
End: mid January

Critical windows

late July – late August
48% of annual activity
mid October – early November
13% of annual activity
mid January – late January
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.33). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

10

2001
5
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2006
7
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 9.8× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2014
5
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
2015
3
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2017
2
season ended 17 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 22 weeks early
2020
7
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2021
8
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2022
2
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 21 weeks late
2023
1
season began 28 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shusha District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 10 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – late August
Record year: 20218
Trend: −32%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5	1
2002	2	0
2003	2	0
2004	3	0
2005	2	0
2006	7	2
2007	2	1
2008	2	0
2009	1	0
2010	2	5
2011	2	1
2012	0	0
2013	2	2
2014	5	5
2015	3	3
2016	0	0
2017	2	2
2018	1	1
2019	0	0
2020	7	20
2021	8	16
2022	2	5
2023	1	1
2024	0	0
2025	0	0
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 11 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun15°

Mon7°

Tue3°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri11°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#22 of 26 yearsNormal: 2

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.0 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.3

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – mid January

Onset: early August
Peak: early August
End: mid January

Critical windows

late July – late August
48% of annual activity
mid October – early November
13% of annual activity
mid January – late January
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.33). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

10

2001
5
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2006
7
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 9.8× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2014
5
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
2015
3
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2017
2
season ended 17 weeks early
2018
1
season ended 22 weeks early
2020
7
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
2021
8
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 13× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2022
2
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 21 weeks late
2023
1
season began 28 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson