Masally District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2002185
Trend: −36%/ 10significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	44	3
2002	185	75
2003	37	6
2004	142	54
2005	59	22
2006	71	25
2007	48	13
2008	35	8
2009	85	32
2010	25	2
2011	36	8
2012	24	24
2013	95	95
2014	56	56
2015	26	26
2016	35	35
2017	41	41
2018	52	101
2019	47	88
2020	12	31
2021	19	41
2022	28	51
2023	34	68
2024	8	23
2025	29	78
2026	17	66

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri19°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date17

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 35

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~28 June
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid September

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −36%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.5× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
185
5.0× the normal annual activity
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
2004
142
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 6.2× stronger than normal
2008
35
season began 15 weeks early
2009
85
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2013
95
peak 5.4× stronger than normal
2020
12
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2021
19
season began 16 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
28
season began 4 weeks early
2023
34
season began 6 weeks early
2024
8
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
29
season began 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Masally District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2002185
Trend: −36%/ 10significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	44	3
2002	185	75
2003	37	6
2004	142	54
2005	59	22
2006	71	25
2007	48	13
2008	35	8
2009	85	32
2010	25	2
2011	36	8
2012	24	24
2013	95	95
2014	56	56
2015	26	26
2016	35	35
2017	41	41
2018	52	101
2019	47	88
2020	12	31
2021	19	41
2022	28	51
2023	34	68
2024	8	23
2025	29	78
2026	17	66

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu18°

Fri19°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date17

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 35

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.4 expected · usual 0.6

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~28 June
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid September

Onset: late June
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −36%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.5× its earlier level (p 0.02). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
185
5.0× the normal annual activity
peak 8.4× stronger than normal
2004
142
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 6.2× stronger than normal
2008
35
season began 15 weeks early
2009
85
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
2013
95
peak 5.4× stronger than normal
2020
12
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2021
19
season began 16 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late
2022
28
season began 4 weeks early
2023
34
season began 6 weeks early
2024
8
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
29
season began 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson