Sharur District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early August
Record year: 201373
Trend: −18%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	14	3
2003	10	3
2004	12	2
2005	13	3
2006	41	13
2007	9	1
2008	8	2
2009	10	3
2010	15	4
2011	14	3
2012	23	21
2013	73	73
2014	18	18
2015	30	30
2016	15	15
2017	6	6
2018	43	86
2019	7	24
2020	8	14
2021	7	13
2022	0	4
2023	4	9
2024	3	16
2025	12	43
2026	7	22

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu12°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date7

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 12

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – early August
47% of annual activity
early March – late March
10% of annual activity
late August – late August
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2006
41
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 7.1× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2012
23
season began 6 weeks early
2013
73
6.2× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2015
30
season began 4 weeks late
2018
43
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
2021
7
season began 23 weeks late
2024
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late
2026
7
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Sharur District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – early August
Record year: 201373
Trend: −18%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	10	0
2002	14	3
2003	10	3
2004	12	2
2005	13	3
2006	41	13
2007	9	1
2008	8	2
2009	10	3
2010	15	4
2011	14	3
2012	23	21
2013	73	73
2014	18	18
2015	30	30
2016	15	15
2017	6	6
2018	43	86
2019	7	24
2020	8	14
2021	7	13
2022	0	4
2023	4	9
2024	3	16
2025	12	43
2026	7	22

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu12°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date7

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 12

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.3

likely 0.0–1.0 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~12 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid September

Onset: early March
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Critical windows

late June – early August
47% of annual activity
early March – late March
10% of annual activity
late August – late August
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2006
41
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 7.1× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2012
23
season began 6 weeks early
2013
73
6.2× the normal annual activity
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2015
30
season began 4 weeks late
2018
43
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 6.6× stronger than normal
season began 17 weeks late
2021
7
season began 23 weeks late
2024
3
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late
2026
7
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson