Zaqatala District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – mid August
Record year: 200199
Trend: −32%/ 10significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	99	17
2002	17	2
2003	8	0
2004	23	4
2005	34	9
2006	24	4
2007	30	7
2008	35	7
2009	11	1
2010	12	1
2011	23	4
2012	41	41
2013	6	6
2014	16	16
2015	9	9
2016	31	31
2017	22	22
2018	15	24
2019	12	26
2020	22	48
2021	11	19
2022	25	47
2023	3	7
2024	5	23
2025	11	43
2026	11	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun14°

Mon8°

Tue4°

Wed12°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat9°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date11

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 16

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.2 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–1.8

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – late March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid July
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – mid August
37% of annual activity
late February – late March
30% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.1× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

10

2001
99
5.7× the normal annual activity
peak 6.8× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early
2005
34
season ended 13 weeks early
2007
30
season began 6 weeks late
2012
41
season began 25 weeks late
2014
16
season began 25 weeks late
2020
22
season began 25 weeks late
2021
11
season began 9 weeks late
2022
25
season began 6 weeks late
2023
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
11
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Zaqatala District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – mid August
Record year: 200199
Trend: −32%/ 10significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	99	17
2002	17	2
2003	8	0
2004	23	4
2005	34	9
2006	24	4
2007	30	7
2008	35	7
2009	11	1
2010	12	1
2011	23	4
2012	41	41
2013	6	6
2014	16	16
2015	9	9
2016	31	31
2017	22	22
2018	15	24
2019	12	26
2020	22	48
2021	11	19
2022	25	47
2023	3	7
2024	5	23
2025	11	43
2026	11	24

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun14°

Mon8°

Tue4°

Wed12°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat9°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date11

#17 of 26 yearsNormal: 16

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.2 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–3.9 · usual 0.0–1.8

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – late March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid July
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early July – mid August
37% of annual activity
late February – late March
30% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −32%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.1× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.11).

Unusual years

10

2001
99
5.7× the normal annual activity
peak 6.8× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early
2005
34
season ended 13 weeks early
2007
30
season began 6 weeks late
2012
41
season began 25 weeks late
2014
16
season began 25 weeks late
2020
22
season began 25 weeks late
2021
11
season began 9 weeks late
2022
25
season began 6 weeks late
2023
3
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
11
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson