Shabran District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2022108
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	51	7
2002	29	6
2003	32	11
2004	35	9
2005	25	5
2006	27	5
2007	29	8
2008	15	0
2009	17	1
2010	28	6
2011	23	3
2012	18	17
2013	26	26
2014	17	17
2015	33	33
2016	43	43
2017	32	32
2018	47	86
2019	54	96
2020	77	151
2021	49	95
2022	108	216
2023	7	13
2024	14	38
2025	12	26
2026	4	15

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon4°

Tue8°

Wed11°

Thu14°

Fri15°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–2.4

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – late September

Onset: early March
Peak: late August
End: late September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

10

2003
32
season ended 3 weeks early
2011
23
season began 12 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late
2014
17
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
33
season began 18 weeks late
2017
32
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
47
season ended 5 weeks early
2019
54
season ended 5 weeks late
2021
49
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
108
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
7
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shabran District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – mid September
Record year: 2022108
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	51	7
2002	29	6
2003	32	11
2004	35	9
2005	25	5
2006	27	5
2007	29	8
2008	15	0
2009	17	1
2010	28	6
2011	23	3
2012	18	17
2013	26	26
2014	17	17
2015	33	33
2016	43	43
2017	32	32
2018	47	86
2019	54	96
2020	77	151
2021	49	95
2022	108	216
2023	7	13
2024	14	38
2025	12	26
2026	4	15

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon4°

Tue8°

Wed11°

Thu14°

Fri15°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–2.3 · usual 0.0–2.4

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – late September

Onset: early March
Peak: late August
End: late September

Critical windows

late June – mid September
61% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

10

2003
32
season ended 3 weeks early
2011
23
season began 12 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late
2014
17
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
33
season began 18 weeks late
2017
32
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
47
season ended 5 weeks early
2019
54
season ended 5 weeks late
2021
49
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
108
peak 12× stronger than normal
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
7
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson