Agdam District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late August
Record year: 2015940
Trend: −46%/ 10significant · on raw data: +22%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	131	14
2002	251	66
2003	675	224
2004	708	191
2005	287	62
2006	631	195
2007	202	51
2008	244	57
2009	326	68
2010	504	139
2011	476	136
2012	115	114
2013	98	98
2014	63	63
2015	940	940
2016	317	317
2017	281	281
2018	322	621
2019	462	894
2020	80	145
2021	46	121
2022	26	60
2023	41	69
2024	41	135
2025	122	369
2026	320	991

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
Rain expected (23 mm)↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue10°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri18°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date320

#10 of 26 yearsNormal: 249

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.6 expected · usual 3.5

likely 0.3–6.5 · usual 0.0–11

Season

Starts ~14 June
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid June – late August

Onset: mid June
Peak: mid July
End: late August

Critical windows

late May – late August
89% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −46%/10Raw: +22%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.09). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2001
131
season ended 7 weeks late
2012
115
season ended 13 weeks late
2013
98
season ended 6 weeks late
2014
63
season began 7 weeks early
2018
322
season began 6 weeks early
2020
80
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Agdam District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid June

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late May – late August
Record year: 2015940
Trend: −46%/ 10significant · on raw data: +22%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	131	14
2002	251	66
2003	675	224
2004	708	191
2005	287	62
2006	631	195
2007	202	51
2008	244	57
2009	326	68
2010	504	139
2011	476	136
2012	115	114
2013	98	98
2014	63	63
2015	940	940
2016	317	317
2017	281	281
2018	322	621
2019	462	894
2020	80	145
2021	46	121
2022	26	60
2023	41	69
2024	41	135
2025	122	369
2026	320	991

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
Rain expected (23 mm)↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue10°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri18°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date320

#10 of 26 yearsNormal: 249

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.6 expected · usual 3.5

likely 0.3–6.5 · usual 0.0–11

Season

Starts ~14 June
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid June – late August

Onset: mid June
Peak: mid July
End: late August

Critical windows

late May – late August
89% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −46%/10Raw: +22%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.09). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2001
131
season ended 7 weeks late
2012
115
season ended 13 weeks late
2013
98
season ended 6 weeks late
2014
63
season began 7 weeks early
2018
322
season began 6 weeks early
2020
80
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson