Zangilan District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid September
Record year: 2015433
Trend: −45%/ 10significant · on raw data: +36%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	308	40
2002	317	78
2003	134	40
2004	401	114
2005	83	27
2006	280	74
2007	203	63
2008	222	67
2009	57	15
2010	150	44
2011	67	16
2012	275	266
2013	109	109
2014	151	151
2015	433	433
2016	166	166
2017	147	147
2018	211	379
2019	252	513
2020	168	295
2021	169	326
2022	25	51
2023	16	29
2024	51	123
2025	23	51
2026	0	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Hot weather (17 °C)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu20°

Fri21°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 147

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~6.2 expected · usual 26

likely 0.0–42 · usual 0.0–61

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early February

Onset: late June
Peak: early August
End: early February

Critical windows

mid July – mid September
52% of annual activity
early June – late June
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −45%/10Raw: +36%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.1× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

5

2001
308
season began 7 weeks early
2019
252
season began 6 weeks early
2020
168
season began 13 weeks late
2021
169
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 21 weeks early
2022
25
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Zangilan District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid September
Record year: 2015433
Trend: −45%/ 10significant · on raw data: +36%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	308	40
2002	317	78
2003	134	40
2004	401	114
2005	83	27
2006	280	74
2007	203	63
2008	222	67
2009	57	15
2010	150	44
2011	67	16
2012	275	266
2013	109	109
2014	151	151
2015	433	433
2016	166	166
2017	147	147
2018	211	379
2019	252	513
2020	168	295
2021	169	326
2022	25	51
2023	16	29
2024	51	123
2025	23	51
2026	0	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Hot weather (17 °C)↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun23°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu20°

Fri21°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 147

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~6.2 expected · usual 26

likely 0.0–42 · usual 0.0–61

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – early February

Onset: late June
Peak: early August
End: early February

Critical windows

mid July – mid September
52% of annual activity
early June – late June
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −45%/10Raw: +36%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.1× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

5

2001
308
season began 7 weeks early
2019
252
season began 6 weeks early
2020
168
season began 13 weeks late
2021
169
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 21 weeks early
2022
25
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson