Khojaly District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 10 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – late September
Record year: 2003153
Trend: −29%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	136	20
2002	72	18
2003	153	39
2004	149	46
2005	110	31
2006	117	38
2007	35	9
2008	68	24
2009	24	4
2010	69	22
2011	42	11
2012	87	77
2013	20	20
2014	44	44
2015	97	97
2016	127	127
2017	105	105
2018	127	217
2019	152	271
2020	71	148
2021	24	45
2022	40	79
2023	18	41
2024	22	72
2025	80	192
2026	0	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun17°

Mon8°

Tue4°

Wed11°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 71

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.1 expected · usual 4.5

likely 0.0–13 · usual 0.0–9.5

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid January

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: mid January

Critical windows

mid July – late September
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −29%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.3× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

7

2005
110
season ended 21 weeks early
2006
117
season ended 21 weeks early
2013
20
season began 3 weeks late
2018
127
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
152
season began 3 weeks early
2020
71
season began 6 weeks late
2025
80
season ended 24 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Khojaly District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 10 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – late September
Record year: 2003153
Trend: −29%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	136	20
2002	72	18
2003	153	39
2004	149	46
2005	110	31
2006	117	38
2007	35	9
2008	68	24
2009	24	4
2010	69	22
2011	42	11
2012	87	77
2013	20	20
2014	44	44
2015	97	97
2016	127	127
2017	105	105
2018	127	217
2019	152	271
2020	71	148
2021	24	45
2022	40	79
2023	18	41
2024	22	72
2025	80	192
2026	0	8

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun17°

Mon8°

Tue4°

Wed11°

Thu15°

Fri16°

Sat13°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 71

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.1 expected · usual 4.5

likely 0.0–13 · usual 0.0–9.5

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid January

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: mid January

Critical windows

mid July – late September
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −29%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 4.3× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

7

2005
110
season ended 21 weeks early
2006
117
season ended 21 weeks early
2013
20
season began 3 weeks late
2018
127
season ended 21 weeks early
2019
152
season began 3 weeks early
2020
71
season began 6 weeks late
2025
80
season ended 24 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson