Shamakhi District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early October
Record year: 200184
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +33%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	84	27
2002	48	17
2003	19	14
2004	73	49
2005	25	11
2006	73	45
2007	31	22
2008	19	2
2009	13	2
2010	17	3
2011	23	9
2012	21	20
2013	45	45
2014	27	27
2015	23	23
2016	44	44
2017	37	37
2018	30	64
2019	26	65
2020	23	45
2021	57	109
2022	4	15
2023	11	23
2024	10	31
2025	10	37
2026	5	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun17°

Mon9°

Tue5°

Wed8°

Thu12°

Fri12°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date5

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 23

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.7 expected · usual 2.8

likely 0.0–7.6 · usual 0.0–6.7

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid August
End: early March

Critical windows

mid July – early October
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +33%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.4× its earlier level (p 0.03). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

9

2001
84
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2015
23
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
44
season ended 13 weeks early
2018
30
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
23
season began 6 weeks late
2021
57
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
2024
10
season began 11 weeks early
2026
5
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shamakhi District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early October
Record year: 200184
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +33%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	84	27
2002	48	17
2003	19	14
2004	73	49
2005	25	11
2006	73	45
2007	31	22
2008	19	2
2009	13	2
2010	17	3
2011	23	9
2012	21	20
2013	45	45
2014	27	27
2015	23	23
2016	44	44
2017	37	37
2018	30	64
2019	26	65
2020	23	45
2021	57	109
2022	4	15
2023	11	23
2024	10	31
2025	10	37
2026	5	10

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun17°

Mon9°

Tue5°

Wed8°

Thu12°

Fri12°

Sat14°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date5

#25 of 26 yearsNormal: 23

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.7 expected · usual 2.8

likely 0.0–7.6 · usual 0.0–6.7

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: mid August
End: early March

Critical windows

mid July – early October
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +33%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 2.4× its earlier level (p 0.03). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

9

2001
84
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 4.9× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2015
23
season ended 19 weeks early
2016
44
season ended 13 weeks early
2018
30
season ended 19 weeks early
2020
23
season began 6 weeks late
2021
57
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2022
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
2024
10
season began 11 weeks early
2026
5
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson