Shirvan City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid September
Record year: 20239
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	4	0
2004	4	0
2005	4	0
2006	4	0
2007	6	1
2008	4	0
2009	4	0
2010	4	0
2011	4	0
2012	1	1
2013	2	2
2014	2	2
2015	8	8
2016	2	2
2017	3	3
2018	1	2
2019	7	16
2020	4	14
2021	3	5
2022	6	13
2023	9	23
2024	7	26
2025	8	29
2026	6	19

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri17°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date6

#6 of 26 yearsNormal: 4

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late September

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – mid September
31% of annual activity
mid May – late June
25% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 66.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

11

2012
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
2
season ended 8 weeks early
2014
2
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2015
8
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
2
season ended 14 weeks early
2018
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 19 weeks early
2022
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2023
9
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks late
2024
7
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks late
2025
8
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2026
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Shirvan City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid April

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid September
Record year: 20239
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	4	0
2004	4	0
2005	4	0
2006	4	0
2007	6	1
2008	4	0
2009	4	0
2010	4	0
2011	4	0
2012	1	1
2013	2	2
2014	2	2
2015	8	8
2016	2	2
2017	3	3
2018	1	2
2019	7	16
2020	4	14
2021	3	5
2022	6	13
2023	9	23
2024	7	26
2025	8	29
2026	6	19

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun21°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri17°

Sat17°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date6

#6 of 26 yearsNormal: 4

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–0.2 · usual 0.0–0.2

Season

Starts ~19 April
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid April – late September

Onset: mid April
Peak: mid August
End: late September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – mid September
31% of annual activity
mid May – late June
25% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 66.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

11

2012
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
2
season ended 8 weeks early
2014
2
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2015
8
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2016
2
season ended 14 weeks early
2018
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 19 weeks early
2022
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2023
9
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 9 weeks early
season ended 6 weeks late
2024
7
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks late
2025
8
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2026
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson