Kurdamir District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid March
Record year: 2020225
Trend: +17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	79	7
2002	156	9
2003	85	23
2004	168	41
2005	83	19
2006	44	7
2007	46	7
2008	51	11
2009	86	22
2010	50	8
2011	92	23
2012	79	79
2013	67	67
2014	112	112
2015	90	90
2016	100	100
2017	83	83
2018	77	139
2019	208	380
2020	225	426
2021	84	159
2022	176	326
2023	99	202
2024	86	263
2025	140	430
2026	74	237

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (72%)↓

Sun22°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 20% of past years at this time

Year to date74

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 84

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.3 expected · usual 9.3

likely 1.0–33 · usual 0.0–19

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early March
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – mid March
40% of annual activity
early August – late August
18% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +17%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 9.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

17

2002
156
1.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
85
season ended 9 weeks early
2004
168
1.9× the normal annual activity
season ended 21 weeks early
2006
44
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2007
46
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2008
51
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2009
87
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
50
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2014
112
season began 25 weeks late
2015
90
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
83
season began 31 weeks late
2018
77
season ended 19 weeks early
2019
208
2.4× the normal annual activity
2020
225
2.6× the normal annual activity
2022
176
2.0× the normal annual activity
2024
86
season began 21 weeks late
2025
140
1.6× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Kurdamir District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid March
Record year: 2020225
Trend: +17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	79	7
2002	156	9
2003	85	23
2004	168	41
2005	83	19
2006	44	7
2007	46	7
2008	51	11
2009	86	22
2010	50	8
2011	92	23
2012	79	79
2013	67	67
2014	112	112
2015	90	90
2016	100	100
2017	83	83
2018	77	139
2019	208	380
2020	225	426
2021	84	159
2022	176	326
2023	99	202
2024	86	263
2025	140	430
2026	74	237

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.7 m/s)↑
Humid air (72%)↓

Sun22°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 20% of past years at this time

Year to date74

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 84

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.3 expected · usual 9.3

likely 1.0–33 · usual 0.0–19

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early March
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – mid March
40% of annual activity
early August – late August
18% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +17%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 9.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

17

2002
156
1.8× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
85
season ended 9 weeks early
2004
168
1.9× the normal annual activity
season ended 21 weeks early
2006
44
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2007
46
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2008
51
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2009
87
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
50
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2014
112
season began 25 weeks late
2015
90
season ended 20 weeks early
2017
83
season began 31 weeks late
2018
77
season ended 19 weeks early
2019
208
2.4× the normal annual activity
2020
225
2.6× the normal annual activity
2022
176
2.0× the normal annual activity
2024
86
season began 21 weeks late
2025
140
1.6× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson