Sadarak District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – mid April
Record year: 201626
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	8	1
2003	6	1
2004	23	8
2005	6	1
2006	11	3
2007	22	6
2008	12	3
2009	3	0
2010	6	1
2011	18	5
2012	10	8
2013	15	15
2014	14	14
2015	16	16
2016	26	26
2017	11	11
2018	6	7
2019	2	6
2020	4	8
2021	3	6
2022	1	2
2023	1	2
2024	1	13
2025	1	3
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Humid air (69%)↓

Sun16°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–7.0 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – early October

Onset: mid February
Peak: early March
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – mid April
41% of annual activity
late August – mid September
17% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2004
23
season began 23 weeks late
2012
10
season began 6 weeks early
2019
2
season began 6 weeks late
2022
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2023
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2024
1
season began 6 weeks late
2025
1
season ended 32 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Sadarak District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – mid April
Record year: 201626
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7	0
2002	8	1
2003	6	1
2004	23	8
2005	6	1
2006	11	3
2007	22	6
2008	12	3
2009	3	0
2010	6	1
2011	18	5
2012	10	8
2013	15	15
2014	14	14
2015	16	16
2016	26	26
2017	11	11
2018	6	7
2019	2	6
2020	4	8
2021	3	6
2022	1	2
2023	1	2
2024	1	13
2025	1	3
2026	0	0

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Humid air (69%)↓

Sun16°

Mon12°

Tue12°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri15°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date0

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–7.0 · usual 0.0–0.4

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – early October

Onset: mid February
Peak: early March
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late February – mid April
41% of annual activity
late August – mid September
17% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.01). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2004
23
season began 23 weeks late
2012
10
season began 6 weeks early
2019
2
season began 6 weeks late
2022
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2023
1
season ended 28 weeks early
2024
1
season began 6 weeks late
2025
1
season ended 32 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson