Samukh District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – mid March
Record year: 202285
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	72	13
2002	57	14
2003	34	7
2004	31	5
2005	17	2
2006	23	7
2007	21	2
2008	27	8
2009	22	4
2010	18	1
2011	18	1
2012	40	39
2013	16	16
2014	19	19
2015	20	20
2016	63	63
2017	20	20
2018	60	108
2019	19	39
2020	23	65
2021	27	49
2022	85	153
2023	51	108
2024	18	43
2025	17	43
2026	4	23

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (6.7 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun25°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 22

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.7 expected · usual 2.9

likely 0.0–7.3 · usual 0.0–6.8

Season

Starts ~8 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early February – mid September

Onset: early February
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – mid March
21% of annual activity
early July – early August
21% of annual activity
late August – mid September
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

15

2001
72
3.1× the normal annual activity
2002
57
2.5× the normal annual activity
2012
40
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
16
season began 16 weeks late
2014
19
season ended 24 weeks early
2016
63
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2017
20
season began 7 weeks early
2018
60
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2019
19
season ended 9 weeks late
2021
27
season ended 12 weeks early
2022
85
3.7× the normal annual activity
2023
51
2.2× the normal annual activity
2024
18
season began 6 weeks early
2025
17
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Samukh District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – mid March
Record year: 202285
Trend: −8%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	72	13
2002	57	14
2003	34	7
2004	31	5
2005	17	2
2006	23	7
2007	21	2
2008	27	8
2009	22	4
2010	18	1
2011	18	1
2012	40	39
2013	16	16
2014	19	19
2015	20	20
2016	63	63
2017	20	20
2018	60	108
2019	19	39
2020	23	65
2021	27	49
2022	85	153
2023	51	108
2024	18	43
2025	17	43
2026	4	23

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (6.7 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun25°

Mon14°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#26 of 26 yearsNormal: 22

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~1.7 expected · usual 2.9

likely 0.0–7.3 · usual 0.0–6.8

Season

Starts ~8 February
Peak ~19 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early February – mid September

Onset: early February
Peak: mid July
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – mid March
21% of annual activity
early July – early August
21% of annual activity
late August – mid September
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

15

2001
72
3.1× the normal annual activity
2002
57
2.5× the normal annual activity
2012
40
season ended 11 weeks early
2013
16
season began 16 weeks late
2014
19
season ended 24 weeks early
2016
63
2.7× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 19 weeks late
2017
20
season began 7 weeks early
2018
60
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 3.9× stronger than normal
season began 20 weeks late
2019
19
season ended 9 weeks late
2021
27
season ended 12 weeks early
2022
85
3.7× the normal annual activity
2023
51
2.2× the normal annual activity
2024
18
season began 6 weeks early
2025
17
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
4
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson