Lerik District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 200224
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +60%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	4
2002	24	7
2003	5	0
2004	11	3
2005	17	6
2006	9	2
2007	4	0
2008	4	0
2009	4	0
2010	9	2
2011	8	2
2012	0	0
2013	3	3
2014	11	11
2015	3	3
2016	8	8
2017	4	4
2018	4	10
2019	4	9
2020	7	16
2021	4	17
2022	2	2
2023	5	8
2024	2	4
2025	4	12
2026	1	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon7°

Tue5°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri17°

Sat20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 4

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 1.2

likely 0.0–3.3 · usual 0.0–2.7

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early February

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: early February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
54% of annual activity
mid December – late December
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +60%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 3.9× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

11

2002
24
6.1× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2004
11
2.8× the normal annual activity
2005
17
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2010
9
2.3× the normal annual activity
2013
3
season began 9 weeks late
2014
11
2.8× the normal annual activity
2018
4
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
7
season ended 21 weeks early
2022
2
season began 7 weeks late
2024
2
season began 20 weeks late
2026
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 21 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Lerik District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 200224
Trend: −25%/ 10significant · on raw data: +60%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3	4
2002	24	7
2003	5	0
2004	11	3
2005	17	6
2006	9	2
2007	4	0
2008	4	0
2009	4	0
2010	9	2
2011	8	2
2012	0	0
2013	3	3
2014	11	11
2015	3	3
2016	8	8
2017	4	4
2018	4	10
2019	4	9
2020	7	16
2021	4	17
2022	2	2
2023	5	8
2024	2	4
2025	4	12
2026	1	4

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun18°

Mon7°

Tue5°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri17°

Sat20°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date1

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 4

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 1.2

likely 0.0–3.3 · usual 0.0–2.7

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – early February

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: early February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
54% of annual activity
mid December – late December
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +60%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 3.9× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

11

2002
24
6.1× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2004
11
2.8× the normal annual activity
2005
17
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2010
9
2.3× the normal annual activity
2013
3
season began 9 weeks late
2014
11
2.8× the normal annual activity
2018
4
season ended 21 weeks early
2020
7
season ended 21 weeks early
2022
2
season began 7 weeks late
2024
2
season began 20 weeks late
2026
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 21 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson