Agsu District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 2004283
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +41%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	147	30
2002	73	18
2003	44	12
2004	283	71
2005	49	13
2006	70	16
2007	54	13
2008	52	15
2009	59	16
2010	28	2
2011	32	8
2012	31	29
2013	72	72
2014	30	30
2015	97	97
2016	43	43
2017	61	61
2018	98	162
2019	62	124
2020	45	85
2021	73	116
2022	31	48
2023	9	36
2024	15	40
2025	23	50
2026	22	74

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Humid air (65%)↓

Sun19°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri20°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date22

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 46

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.1 expected · usual 4.4

likely 0.9–16 · usual 0.0–10

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early March

Onset: late July
Peak: early August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
49% of annual activity
late February – early March
9% of annual activity
mid September – late September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +41%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

8

2001
147
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2004
283
5.5× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
97
season ended 19 weeks early
2022
31
season began 22 weeks late
2023
9
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2024
15
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2025
23
season began 22 weeks late
2026
22
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Agsu District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 2004283
Trend: −30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +41%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	147	30
2002	73	18
2003	44	12
2004	283	71
2005	49	13
2006	70	16
2007	54	13
2008	52	15
2009	59	16
2010	28	2
2011	32	8
2012	31	29
2013	72	72
2014	30	30
2015	97	97
2016	43	43
2017	61	61
2018	98	162
2019	62	124
2020	45	85
2021	73	116
2022	31	48
2023	9	36
2024	15	40
2025	23	50
2026	22	74

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Humid air (65%)↓

Sun19°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu14°

Fri20°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date22

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 46

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.1 expected · usual 4.4

likely 0.9–16 · usual 0.0–10

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early March

Onset: late July
Peak: early August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
49% of annual activity
late February – early March
9% of annual activity
mid September – late September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −30%/10Raw: +41%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.7× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

8

2001
147
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2004
283
5.5× the normal annual activity
peak 9.0× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2015
97
season ended 19 weeks early
2022
31
season began 22 weeks late
2023
9
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2024
15
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2025
23
season began 22 weeks late
2026
22
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 23 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson