Qusar District

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – early October
Record year: 2002161
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +70%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	136	32
2002	161	66
2003	53	15
2004	63	19
2005	27	2
2006	42	11
2007	33	5
2008	29	4
2009	38	8
2010	103	37
2011	36	7
2012	59	58
2013	76	76
2014	31	31
2015	83	83
2016	112	112
2017	91	91
2018	36	75
2019	55	115
2020	58	102
2021	19	36
2022	67	143
2023	16	23
2024	27	85
2025	30	94
2026	21	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (23 mm)↓

Sun15°

Mon1°

Tue4°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date21

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 52

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.0 expected · usual 3.9

likely 1.9–9.0 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: late August
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – early October
65% of annual activity
late March – early April
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: +70%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.3× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

12

2002
161
peak 5.3× stronger than normal
season began 18 weeks late
2005
27
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
29
season ended 9 weeks late
2010
103
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2014
31
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
83
season began 15 weeks late
2016
112
season began 16 weeks late
2018
36
season began 11 weeks late
2022
67
season began 15 weeks late
2023
16
season ended 5 weeks late
2024
27
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
21
season began 19 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Qusar District

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late July – early October
Record year: 2002161
Trend: −23%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +70%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	136	32
2002	161	66
2003	53	15
2004	63	19
2005	27	2
2006	42	11
2007	33	5
2008	29	4
2009	38	8
2010	103	37
2011	36	7
2012	59	58
2013	76	76
2014	31	31
2015	83	83
2016	112	112
2017	91	91
2018	36	75
2019	55	115
2020	58	102
2021	19	36
2022	67	143
2023	16	23
2024	27	85
2025	30	94
2026	21	46

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (23 mm)↓

Sun15°

Mon1°

Tue4°

Wed13°

Thu15°

Fri12°

Sat19°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date21

#23 of 26 yearsNormal: 52

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.0 expected · usual 3.9

likely 1.9–9.0 · usual 0.0–12

Season

Starts ~29 March
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late March – early October

Onset: late March
Peak: late August
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late July – early October
65% of annual activity
late March – early April
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −23%/10Raw: +70%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.3× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.36).

Unusual years

12

2002
161
peak 5.3× stronger than normal
season began 18 weeks late
2005
27
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
29
season ended 9 weeks late
2010
103
season began 15 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2014
31
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
83
season began 15 weeks late
2016
112
season began 16 weeks late
2018
36
season began 11 weeks late
2022
67
season began 15 weeks late
2023
16
season ended 5 weeks late
2024
27
season ended 7 weeks late
2026
21
season began 19 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson