Gobustan District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early August

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid October
Record year: 2001280
Trend: −52%/ 10significant · on raw data: −56%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	280	41
2002	145	32
2003	213	44
2004	203	68
2005	8	2
2006	6	3
2007	27	12
2008	3	0
2009	29	12
2010	38	17
2011	35	17
2012	3	3
2013	58	58
2014	0	0
2015	17	17
2016	55	55
2017	8	8
2018	3	9
2019	3	7
2020	0	3
2021	1	2
2022	0	1
2023	0	0
2024	7	24
2025	2	5
2026	2	15

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (7.2 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun17°

Mon8°

Tue6°

Wed10°

Thu14°

Fri13°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date2

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–1.4

Season

Starts ~9 August
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late September

Onset: early August
Peak: late August
End: late September

Critical windows

mid July – mid October
96% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −52%/10Raw: −56%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.29). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2001
280
peak 40× stronger than normal
2002
145
peak 34× stronger than normal
2003
213
peak 50× stronger than normal
2004
203
peak 39× stronger than normal
2008
3
season ended 19 weeks late
2015
17
season began 7 weeks early
2017
8
season ended 12 weeks late
2018
3
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks late
2019
3
season began 8 weeks late
2024
7
season ended 15 weeks late
2025
2
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Gobustan District

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early August

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid October
Record year: 2001280
Trend: −52%/ 10significant · on raw data: −56%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	280	41
2002	145	32
2003	213	44
2004	203	68
2005	8	2
2006	6	3
2007	27	12
2008	3	0
2009	29	12
2010	38	17
2011	35	17
2012	3	3
2013	58	58
2014	0	0
2015	17	17
2016	55	55
2017	8	8
2018	3	9
2019	3	7
2020	0	3
2021	1	2
2022	0	1
2023	0	0
2024	7	24
2025	2	5
2026	2	15

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Strong wind (7.2 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun17°

Mon8°

Tue6°

Wed10°

Thu14°

Fri13°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date2

#20 of 26 yearsNormal: 6

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.2 expected · usual 1.4

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–1.4

Season

Starts ~9 August
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late September

Onset: early August
Peak: late August
End: late September

Critical windows

mid July – mid October
96% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −52%/10Raw: −56%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.29). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2001
280
peak 40× stronger than normal
2002
145
peak 34× stronger than normal
2003
213
peak 50× stronger than normal
2004
203
peak 39× stronger than normal
2008
3
season ended 19 weeks late
2015
17
season began 7 weeks early
2017
8
season ended 12 weeks late
2018
3
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 20 weeks late
2019
3
season began 8 weeks late
2024
7
season ended 15 weeks late
2025
2
season began 24 weeks late
season ended 17 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson