Aghjabadi District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – early September
Record year: 2015413
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	198	27
2002	116	19
2003	112	22
2004	143	28
2005	64	3
2006	96	17
2007	66	7
2008	74	8
2009	107	21
2010	145	37
2011	96	20
2012	125	121
2013	107	107
2014	60	60
2015	413	413
2016	223	223
2017	152	152
2018	177	348
2019	396	816
2020	119	259
2021	95	193
2022	114	203
2023	90	183
2024	75	217
2025	163	529
2026	214	681

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 8 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Humid air (64%)↓

Sun24°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date214

#4 of 26 yearsNormal: 110

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.5 expected · usual 6.6

likely 2.0–31 · usual 0.0–18

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early July
End: mid February

Critical windows

mid June – early September
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 14.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

8

2001
198
season began 3 weeks early
2003
112
season ended 6 weeks early
2010
145
season ended 10 weeks early
2011
96
season began 3 weeks late
2015
413
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2016
223
season ended 25 weeks early
2018
177
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
396
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 6.2× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Aghjabadi District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 14 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid June – early September
Record year: 2015413
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	198	27
2002	116	19
2003	112	22
2004	143	28
2005	64	3
2006	96	17
2007	66	7
2008	74	8
2009	107	21
2010	145	37
2011	96	20
2012	125	121
2013	107	107
2014	60	60
2015	413	413
2016	223	223
2017	152	152
2018	177	348
2019	396	816
2020	119	259
2021	95	193
2022	114	203
2023	90	183
2024	75	217
2025	163	529
2026	214	681

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 8 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Humid air (64%)↓

Sun24°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed15°

Thu16°

Fri21°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 22% of past years at this time

Year to date214

#4 of 26 yearsNormal: 110

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

About usual

~7.5 expected · usual 6.6

likely 2.0–31 · usual 0.0–18

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~5 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid February

Onset: late June
Peak: early July
End: mid February

Critical windows

mid June – early September
73% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 14.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

8

2001
198
season began 3 weeks early
2003
112
season ended 6 weeks early
2010
145
season ended 10 weeks early
2011
96
season began 3 weeks late
2015
413
3.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
season ended 27 weeks early
2016
223
season ended 25 weeks early
2018
177
season ended 22 weeks early
2019
396
3.5× the normal annual activity
peak 6.2× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson