Saatly District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early March
Record year: 2022124
Trend: +26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	52	1
2002	79	18
2003	48	9
2004	64	11
2005	30	2
2006	38	4
2007	58	10
2008	54	10
2009	60	17
2010	30	3
2011	63	12
2012	36	33
2013	79	79
2014	39	39
2015	34	34
2016	105	105
2017	91	91
2018	40	79
2019	39	100
2020	94	192
2021	44	101
2022	124	247
2023	101	202
2024	96	281
2025	92	262
2026	126	357

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (4.6 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri20°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date126

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 57

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.5 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–38 · usual 0.0–32

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early July – early March

Onset: early July
Peak: late February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – early March
45% of annual activity
late June – mid July
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +26%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 12.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

10

2004
64
season ended 8 weeks early
2010
30
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
79
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
39
season began 27 weeks late
2015
34
season ended 9 weeks early
2016
105
season ended 12 weeks early
2020
94
season began 28 weeks late
2022
124
season began 28 weeks late
2023
101
season began 9 weeks late
2024
96
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Saatly District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early March
Record year: 2022124
Trend: +26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	52	1
2002	79	18
2003	48	9
2004	64	11
2005	30	2
2006	38	4
2007	58	10
2008	54	10
2009	60	17
2010	30	3
2011	63	12
2012	36	33
2013	79	79
2014	39	39
2015	34	34
2016	105	105
2017	91	91
2018	40	79
2019	39	100
2020	94	192
2021	44	101
2022	124	247
2023	101	202
2024	96	281
2025	92	262
2026	126	357

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (4.6 m/s)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun23°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed14°

Thu17°

Fri20°

Sat18°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 24% of past years at this time

Year to date126

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 57

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

About usual

~8.5 expected · usual 11

likely 1.0–38 · usual 0.0–32

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early July – early March

Onset: early July
Peak: late February
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – early March
45% of annual activity
late June – mid July
16% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +26%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 12.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.07).

Unusual years

10

2004
64
season ended 8 weeks early
2010
30
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
79
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
39
season began 27 weeks late
2015
34
season ended 9 weeks early
2016
105
season ended 12 weeks early
2020
94
season began 28 weeks late
2022
124
season began 28 weeks late
2023
101
season began 9 weeks late
2024
96
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson