Agstafa District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid September
Record year: 2001247
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +30%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	247	43
2002	15	0
2003	11	1
2004	29	6
2005	51	17
2006	111	45
2007	32	8
2008	61	20
2009	25	6
2010	104	34
2011	189	43
2012	44	43
2013	13	13
2014	23	23
2015	45	45
2016	40	40
2017	12	12
2018	9	26
2019	26	50
2020	20	35
2021	5	13
2022	19	36
2023	1	5
2024	3	24
2025	42	102
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.4 m/s)↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun23°

Mon15°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri19°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 25

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.5

likely 0.0–2.4 · usual 0.0–3.7

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late July
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – mid September
58% of annual activity
early March – early March
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +30%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.31). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
247
9.5× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2006
111
season ended 25 weeks early
2010
104
season ended 11 weeks early
2011
189
7.3× the normal annual activity
2015
45
season ended 14 weeks early
2016
40
season ended 25 weeks early
2017
12
season began 12 weeks late
2022
19
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Agstafa District

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – mid September
Record year: 2001247
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +30%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	247	43
2002	15	0
2003	11	1
2004	29	6
2005	51	17
2006	111	45
2007	32	8
2008	61	20
2009	25	6
2010	104	34
2011	189	43
2012	44	43
2013	13	13
2014	23	23
2015	45	45
2016	40	40
2017	12	12
2018	9	26
2019	26	50
2020	20	35
2021	5	13
2022	19	36
2023	1	5
2024	3	24
2025	42	102
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (5.4 m/s)↑
Hot weather (16 °C)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun23°

Mon15°

Tue11°

Wed14°

Thu15°

Fri19°

Sat16°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 28% of past years at this time

Year to date4

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 25

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.0 expected · usual 1.5

likely 0.0–2.4 · usual 0.0–3.7

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~26 July

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – mid March

Onset: mid July
Peak: late July
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – mid September
58% of annual activity
early March – early March
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +30%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.31). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
247
9.5× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
season ended 24 weeks early
2006
111
season ended 25 weeks early
2010
104
season ended 11 weeks early
2011
189
7.3× the normal annual activity
2015
45
season ended 14 weeks early
2016
40
season ended 25 weeks early
2017
12
season began 12 weeks late
2022
19
season began 15 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson