Mingachevir City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late March
Record year: 20259
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +86%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	0
2004	5	1
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	4	1
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	1	1
2013	3	3
2014	2	2
2015	0	0
2016	2	2
2017	6	6
2018	7	15
2019	2	2
2020	4	9
2021	3	5
2022	1	3
2023	3	6
2024	4	13
2025	9	18
2026	10	33

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Strong wind (5.8 m/s)↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun22°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri19°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date10

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–4.3 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid July

Onset: early December
Peak: early March
End: mid July

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – late March
36% of annual activity
early June – late June
10% of annual activity
late December – early January
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +86%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2016 to 14.8× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.68).

Unusual years

13

2012
1
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 20 weeks early
2013
3
season ended 17 weeks early
2014
2
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
2
season ended 8 weeks early
2017
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2018
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2019
2
season ended 22 weeks early
2020
4
season ended 12 weeks early
2022
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2023
3
season ended 22 weeks early
2024
4
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early
2025
9
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2026
10
3.1× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Mingachevir City

Next 7 daysLow0%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late March
Record year: 20259
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +86%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4	0
2002	4	0
2003	3	0
2004	5	1
2005	3	0
2006	3	0
2007	4	1
2008	3	0
2009	3	0
2010	3	0
2011	3	0
2012	1	1
2013	3	3
2014	2	2
2015	0	0
2016	2	2
2017	6	6
2018	7	15
2019	2	2
2020	4	9
2021	3	5
2022	1	3
2023	3	6
2024	4	13
2025	9	18
2026	10	33

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Strong wind (5.8 m/s)↑
Hot weather (15 °C)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun22°

Mon13°

Tue11°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri19°

Sat15°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 26% of past years at this time

Year to date10

#1 of 26 yearsNormal: 3

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.8 expected · usual 1.7

likely 0.0–4.3 · usual 0.0–1.3

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid July

Onset: early December
Peak: early March
End: mid July

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – late March
36% of annual activity
early June – late June
10% of annual activity
late December – early January
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +86%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2016 to 14.8× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.68).

Unusual years

13

2012
1
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 20 weeks early
2013
3
season ended 17 weeks early
2014
2
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2016
2
season ended 8 weeks early
2017
6
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2018
7
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
2019
2
season ended 22 weeks early
2020
4
season ended 12 weeks early
2022
1
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2023
3
season ended 22 weeks early
2024
4
peak 4.0× stronger than normal
season ended 28 weeks early
2025
9
2.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
2026
10
3.1× the normal annual activity
season began 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson