Ismailli District

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late July

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early July – late September
Record year: 2001299
Trend: −56%/ 10significant · on raw data: +12%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	299	66
2002	214	66
2003	68	21
2004	203	68
2005	105	34
2006	190	55
2007	119	36
2008	163	52
2009	96	26
2010	132	37
2011	168	57
2012	58	56
2013	167	167
2014	30	30
2015	178	178
2016	126	126
2017	86	86
2018	118	235
2019	162	297
2020	39	81
2021	19	49
2022	89	149
2023	18	25
2024	12	28
2025	16	65
2026	22	69

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sun16°

Mon11°

Tue6°

Wed11°

Thu14°

Fri14°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.3 expected · usual 2.1

likely 0.0–2.2 · usual 0.0–4.6

Season

Starts ~26 July
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early November

Onset: late July
Peak: early August
End: early November

Critical windows

early July – late September
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −56%/10Raw: +12%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.26). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2006
190
season began 3 weeks early
2009
96
season began 3 weeks early
2014
30
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2020
39
season began 3 weeks early
2021
19
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2023
18
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
2026
22
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson