Armenia

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid August – early October
Record year: 20104,422
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1369	135
2002	860	117
2003	529	66
2004	1720	374
2005	958	204
2006	1057	227
2007	612	81
2008	1628	354
2009	684	102
2010	4422	889
2011	1078	229
2012	1306	1252
2013	1583	1583
2014	980	980
2015	1004	1004
2016	1248	1248
2017	1673	1673
2018	1544	3068
2019	1633	3176
2020	673	1332
2021	695	1413
2022	1395	2621
2023	860	1759
2024	629	1911
2025	2540	7508
2026	632	1854

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.22×

Raw data

1.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 10
Usual (median): 48
Rank: 22 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.22×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~4.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sat10°

Sun11°

Mon6°

Tue5°

Wed7°

Thu8°

Fri9°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 0% of past years at this time

Year to date632

#22 of 26 yearsNormal: 993

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~4.2 expected · usual 93

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~113 expected · usual 305

likely 22–512 · usual 0.2–685

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – mid March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid November
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid August – early October
30% of annual activity
early November – late November
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2004
1,720
season ended 6 weeks early
2010
4,422
4.1× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2012
1,306
season began 8 weeks late
2018
1,544
season ended 6 weeks early
2021
695
season began 3 weeks early
2022
1,395
season began 4 weeks late
2024
629
season began 4 weeks late
2025
2,540
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late

Districts and provinces

11

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Armenia

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid August – early October
Record year: 20104,422
Trend: +4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1369	135
2002	860	117
2003	529	66
2004	1720	374
2005	958	204
2006	1057	227
2007	612	81
2008	1628	354
2009	684	102
2010	4422	889
2011	1078	229
2012	1306	1252
2013	1583	1583
2014	980	980
2015	1004	1004
2016	1248	1248
2017	1673	1673
2018	1544	3068
2019	1633	3176
2020	673	1332
2021	695	1413
2022	1395	2621
2023	860	1759
2024	629	1911
2025	2540	7508
2026	632	1854

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.22×

Raw data

1.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 10
Usual (median): 48
Rank: 22 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.22×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~4.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sat10°

Sun11°

Mon6°

Tue5°

Wed7°

Thu8°

Fri9°

Right now

early November

This week0.0

This week is more active than 0% of past years at this time

Year to date632

#22 of 26 yearsNormal: 993

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~4.2 expected · usual 93

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~113 expected · usual 305

likely 22–512 · usual 0.2–685

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – mid March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid November
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid August – early October
30% of annual activity
early November – late November
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +4%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2004
1,720
season ended 6 weeks early
2010
4,422
4.1× the normal annual activity
peak 8.0× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2012
1,306
season began 8 weeks late
2018
1,544
season ended 6 weeks early
2021
695
season began 3 weeks early
2022
1,395
season began 4 weeks late
2024
629
season began 4 weeks late
2025
2,540
peak 4.7× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late

Districts and provinces

11

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson